Published on Feb 24, 2025
The last 16 of this year's Champions League has not even begun but with 13 games left in the Premier League, thoughts are already turning to qualifying for next year's tournament.
The race for the top four - or most likely five, but we will come back to that later - is pretty tight, as only eight points separate Nottingham Forest in third and Aston Villa all the way down in ninth, with 39 points left to play for.
Liverpool and Arsenal look certain to reach next season's Champions League and enjoy a 17-point and 10-point buffer over fifth spot already. Opta give Liverpool a 100 per cent chance of finishing in the top four, with Arsenal only a tad less likely with a 99.9 per cent chance.
Behind them there are more than half-a-dozen teams, including Manchester City and Chelsea - but also surprise packages Forest and Bournemouth - in with a shot of making it over the line.
The picture could change significantly over the next week, with six matches between teams vying for a place in next season's competition.
Aston Villa have ground to make up from ninth spot but, fresh from holding Liverpool to a draw on Wednesday, will face a Chelsea side who have not only dropped out of the title race but also the top four, live on Sky Sports on Saturday, with kick-off at 5.30pm.
Both Super Sunday games also feature Champions League chasers facing off, as Liverpool face fourth-placed Man City and third-placed Forest host seventh-placed Newcastle, with both games also live on Sky Sports.
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Forest then host second-placed Arsenal next Wednesday, while Newcastle travel to Anfield in a crucial few days for Eddie Howe's team following back-to-back league defeats to Fulham and Man City.
Brighton, who sit 10th but have as much as a 3.5 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League according to Opta, host fifth-placed Bournemouth on Tuesday night as they look to claw back the six-point gap to their south-coast rivals in the race to make it into Europe's top club competition.
Will the Premier League have five Champions League spots next season?It is not certain but is very likely that England will have at least five spots in next season's Champions League for the first time since 2017/18, owing to the Premier League's performance in Europe.
Six of the seven English teams involved in European competition this season have made it through to the last 16 of their respective tournaments, with only Man City absent following their Champions League play-off defeat to Real Madrid.
That puts England comfortably at the top of the charts for its European coefficient this season, which is an accumulation of wins and draws picked up by each country's sides and further points awarded for how far they make it in each continental competition.
The top-two ranked countries at the end of the season will receive an extra Champions League place next season, with Italy and Spain currently battling it out for second spot.
A word of caution, though. England was comfortably top of the UEFA coefficient list for much of last season before a raft of eliminations from European competition saw their hopes of an extra qualifying disappear, confining fifth-placed Tottenham to this season's Europa League instead of the Champions League.
Should the Premier League's representatives on the continent find themselves on the wrong end of some more tricky draws, the same thing could happen this time around.
There is another way England could end up with five - or perhaps even six spots. That outcome would occur if either of Tottenham or Manchester United win this season's Europa League while also finishing outside of the qualifying spots in the Premier League.
Who is most likely to reach the top four - or five?There may still be 13 matches to go but Opta has given both Liverpool and Arsenal an almost certain chance of reaching next season's Champions League owing to their buffer over the teams below them and the difficulty of their remaining fixtures relative to the other sides in the race.
With that in mind, Man City are third-favourites to qualify for next season's tournament despite sitting behind Forest in the table - though Nuno Espirito Santo's side have the next-best chance of rounding off the top four.
Bournemouth and Chelsea will both be hoping for a fifth spot in the Champions League, with their qualifying prospects jumping by more than 20 per cent for a top-five finish compared to if they need to reach the top four.
Newcastle are the only other side with a double-digit percentage chance of reaching next season's competition at this stage, Opta says.
Here is the average position of each Premier League side's next five opponents, taking them right into the final throes of the season...
Teams included with a one-per-cent or greater chance of qualifying:
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