Champions League qualification: Who is most likely to win race and how many spots will Premier League teams have?

Published on May 03, 2025

The race for Champions League qualification is more competitive than ever with five Premier League teams guaranteed qualification, but who will make the cut?

The race for the top five is tight, with only seven points separating Manchester City in third and Aston Villa in seventh following City's 1-0 home win over Wolves on Friday.

Opta's supercomputer has run the numbers on each team's chances - so who do they expect to get over the line?

Premier League winners Liverpool have already guaranteed Champions League football, while Opta put Arsenal's prospects at 99.9 per cent.

Man City - who have a favourable run-in - now have a 97 per cent chance of making those Champions League spots.

Newcastle's chances remain at 84 per cent of making the top five ahead of their trip to Brighton on Sunday, live on Sky Sports.

Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United

Sunday 4th May 1:00pm Kick off 2:00pm

Chelsea occupy the fifth and final Champions League qualification spot, but their 49 per cent chance is lower than sixth-placed Nottingham Forest's 58 per cent, which dropped from 75 per cent after Thursday's 2-0 home loss to Brentford.

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Premier League fixtures

Chelsea go to Forest on the final day of the season.

Chelsea
Liverpool

Sunday 4th May 4:00pm Kick off 4:30pm

Aston Villa's prospects, though, are fading in the eyes of the supercomputer. They are given just a 12 per cent chance of making the top five.

Premier League guaranteed to have five Champions League spots
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Who plays who in the final weeks?

The run-in sees two games between Champions League hopefuls as Chelsea go to Newcastle on May 11, before Forest host Chelsea on the final day of the season.

And on top of that, there is likely to be a SIXTH Premier League team in the Champions League next season, after Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United convincingly won their Europa League semi-final first legs.

Should Tottenham and Manchester United both reach the final in Bilbao, one of them will directly qualify for the Champions League, despite finishing in the bottom half of the table.

Manchester City's remaining fixtures

May 10: Southampton vs Man City, kick-off 4pm

May 20: Man City vs Bournemouth, kick-off 7pm

May 25: Fulham vs Man City, kick-off 4pm

Nottingham Forest's remaining fixtures

Monday: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports

May 11: Nottingham Forest vs Leicester, kick-off 2.15pm, live on Sky Sports

May 18: West Ham vs Nottingham Forest, kick-off 2.15pm

May 25: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea, kick-off 4pm

Newcastle's remaining fixtures

Sunday: Brighton vs Newcastle, kick-off 2pm, live on Sky Sports

May 11: Newcastle vs Chelsea, kick-off 12pm